Although a team’s winning percentage is very high, this is no guarantee that it will win the next match. The odds are sometimes against winning percentages, but not coincidentally. Consider many details to determine a team’s chances of winning the next match.
To understand a team’s performance in the last season or in the last round of games and to know if we can bet on it with peace of mind, we have to calculate its winning percentage. The simplest formula, if there are no ties, is to divide the number of wins by the total number of matches in which the teams played.
Winning percentage = (wins / total matches played) x100.
For example, if your team played 60 matches and won 46, its winning percentage would be: (46/60) x100 = 76.6%.
Even if this team has a 76.6% winning percentage, other aspects come into play when calculating its chances of winning the next game. The winning percentage and performance of the opponent’s team will have to be evaluated if there are injured or suspended players who, for some reason, will not be able to play in the next game. If the team is playing at home, even the weather conditions may be aspects to consider.
So eventually, the odds may go against a team’s winning percentages, not necessarily a team that has won quite a bit previously, but will be a winner in an upcoming match if conditions are adverse when the odds are placed.
How to Know the Odds of a Team Winning?
To identify a winning team’s odds, we must learn how to read the odds. Mainly, know that you will find three types of odds: decimal (1.57), fraction (0.57/1), and American (Moneyline -175).
The easiest way to explain it is to be guided by the Moneyline. When the betting odds are positive, it means that the team is the underdog and the number placed in positive indicates the profit obtained for every $100 spent.
Negative odds indicate how much you have to spend to win $100. These usually apply to teams that are favorites, and negative odds are applied to them, meaning that it would be normal for them to win, so to have more profit, you have to bet a higher amount.
- If you bet $150 on a team with odds +135, the profit would be as follows: 150 + 135 (150/100) = $352,5.
- In the case of a favorite team with negative odds, if you bet $150 on a team with odds of -135, the profit would be as follows: 150+150 (100/135) = $261.1.
As you can see, betting against the favorite will always have a better profit. Still, it is a risky bet, and it is necessary to evaluate the odds that an underdog has to place our money in its favor.
How to Identify a Safe Bet?
Keep in mind that no bet is 100% under normal parameters. However, in the world of sports betting, we speak of a safe bet as a type of bet where you get to benefit from the differences in the odds offered by different sportsbooks, but to achieve this, you have to do a lot of research.
Generally, the profit from a safe bet is small, around 5% of the initial investment. That is why spending money on programs or websites that offer you a subscription is not recommended but to do it through your research.
You can start by opening all the bookmakers that offer the sporting event you wish to bet on and compare the odds offered. Then, you will have to apply your mathematical logic to bet on divergent outcomes when odds allow you to make a profit regardless of the match’s outcome.
A common type of safe bet is to bet on the winner of both teams playing a match, making very good calculations of odds and investment. Take into account that some sports bookmakers do not accept safe bets.
How To Make an Analysis to Bet?
To make a bet, the previous analysis should be thorough and consider more aspects than seems needed. It is not just looking at a team’s statistics or previous performance. You have to make use of as much information and statistics as possible. Some elements that you should not lose sight of are the following:
- Evaluate the history of matches between the two teams.
- Results of each team in recent matches.
- Teams’ ranking in the tournament or championship.
- Many days of a break since the last match.
- Results of the rivals at home and away.
- History of the clash between the teams’ coaches.
- Scores of matches with superior teams.
- Records of matches with inferior teams.
- Players’ disqualifications and injuries.
- Team scores when judged by a designated referee.
- Assess players’ condition for this moment of the championship.
After placing all these elements on the table, we will have to evaluate the odds available at the different sportsbooks to complete our analysis and make a wise betting decision. Always try to find this information in reliable places with official statistical data. It is a good idea to use the leagues’ official websites or the teams themselves. Read this article where you find the best bookmaker to bet in Canada.
How to Make a Good Prediction in the NHL?
There is a lot to be said for predicting an NHL game, it can be overwhelming, but by following a smart strategy, you can come up with incredible predictions. The more statistical and general knowledge you can accumulate about the teams, the greater your advantage.
Watch the games and read team stats and roster information to see who is on a hot streak and who has struggled lately.
Take into account how each team has performed in the last few seasons, especially if they have had any major changes in personnel or strategy recently (such as new management or coaches). This is probably one of the best tools for predicting games.
Try not to be too emotional about your team. It’s all superstition in the NHL, and getting too attached can affect your judgment. Don’t try to start by making very specific predictions. You can start with predictions of the final score of a game, and everything will make more sense. Find the best NHL predictions at Sports Interaction.
Consider some important details such as the following:
- The advantage adjustments when the team plays at home, and remember that when the games are in neutral venues, this adjustment does not apply.
- Consider playoff adjustments, considering that favorites tend to outscore underdogs by a larger margin in the playoffs than in the regular season.
- You can turn to bet strategies that are not about the outcome of who wins or not but how they win.
- Evaluate the historical ratings of each team’s performance, but be on the lookout for interesting details. For example, if any teams won a game, they were expected to lose. This should be considered as a point total for that team because it speaks of the team’s quality.
Where Can I Find a 100% Safe Bet?
No platform can offer you 100% certainty that a bet will be victorious. Betting odds are based on previous studies of the teams and their performances to get an idea of what can happen in a match and try to bet on the most consistent outcome, but in reality, anything can happen.
Are Betting Odds Made By Chance?
The answer is no. Betting odds are made after a detailed study of the performance and conditions of each team facing each other, so they are as close as possible to the final result.
When is it Appropriate to Bet Against the Favorite?
Betting against the favorite can have important benefits, but it is always risky. You can bet against the favorite if there are aspects against it, such as a last-minute injury of the team leader, a sanction that prevents a player from playing, changes in the squad, and other aspects that can change the panorama benefiting the underdog.