An algorithm is “a process or set of rules to be followed in calculations or other problem-solving operations, especially by a computer”, according to Oxford Languages. Applied to sports betting, this programmed sequence provides significant assistance to the bettor: to identify the most profitable bet and the riskiest.
Nowadays, the algorithms have become increasingly precise due to the combination with digital tools like Big Data, IoT, or biometrical analysis of the athletes, among others. The big sportsbooks like —Betway or Bet365— have developed their prediction systems. Consequently, they usually have slight variations between their odds in a match or long-term predictions (title winner, team standings, most valuable player).
Types of Sports Betting Algorithms
Betting Arbitrage Algorithms
It is an algorithm created to take advantage of possible changes in the probabilities of specific sporting events. Therefore, the calculations must consider the exchange of bets and discrepancies in the odds. In this way, bettors can guarantee profits regardless of the outcome of a match.
As these are rare, betting arbitrage algorithms hardly result in large money winnings. However, such sequences bring a secure income to the bettor by determining patterns in the odds. For this reason, some bookmakers limit their accounts and set fixed odds to avoid losing money.
Value Betting Algorithms
Value betting algorithms are sequences programmed to find bets with a higher return margin than the expected risk. To do this, the system considers past statistics, mainly the frequency of specific results. For example, if both teams average more than two goals per game in a soccer match, the logical bet would be over 3.5 goals total.
However, the bettor must also consider the record of particular clashes and the current potential of the squads of the opposing teams. Likewise, the sportsbook user must make their decisions based on the overall observation (including algorithms, team morale, current streak, player’s form, etc.) of the parameters that can intervene in the outcome of a sports bet.
How to Create a Betting System?
What is a Sports Betting System?
A betting system is a set of strategies created by a bettor or sportsbook to maximize the profit systematically. In other words, it is an organized approach that allows one to categorize, and show a complete picture when making the best sports betting choices. Therefore, it is a common tactic among gamblers who take sports betting professionally.
Although there is an excellent variety of sports betting systems, this does not mean they work properly in all cases. The first recommendation is to create a methodology adjusted to the context and tastes of the bettor. It’s even possible to change the strategy depending on the type of sport, and the type of bet that the sportsbook user decides to place.
Benefits of Creating a Sports Betting System
- The bettor can earn regular profits and avoid costly mistakes
- More in-depth analysis of odds, statistics, lines, and probabilistic scrutiny
- Knowledge systematization: based on the results, the bookmarker user can more easily determine why they won or lost a bet, learn from the outcome, and make better choices soon.
Creating a Sports Betting System: Step by Step
- Choose which sport(s) to bet on; if the bettor chooses more than one, it is necessary to elaborate a flexible and multi-faceted strategy
- Take into account as much valuable information as possible related to the sport and the matches, or championships in which the bettor decides to play
- The bettor must determine the frequency of bets (daily, weekly or biweekly) according to the time they can devote to the probabilistic analysis. Consistency is critical.
- The bettor should be familiar with the most common betting methods. Some of them are mentioned below:
- Martingale System: the bettor increases the amount of the bet progressively after every loss
- Labouchere System: consists of distributing the available funds among several bets until a pre-established amount of winnings are reached
- Positive Progression: the bettor increases the amount of the wager after each success
- Paroli system: the sportsbook user will double their bet after each winning bet.
- Set a beneficial system parameter if the success percentage remains equal to, or greater than 53% of the total bets (if don’t, the bettor must re-evaluate and adjust his system).
- The bettor should watch for any changes in the sport’s regulations. The same applies to the conditions of the bookmakers.
How to Predict the Outcome of a Football Match?
The first recommendation for predicting outcomes in American Football games is an unwritten rule of world-class sports: good offense wins games, and good defense wins championships. Accordingly, professional gamblers tend to create betting systems whose short-term predictions prioritize teams with solid offenses. This strategy is recommended for regular season games in combination with the study of the following factors:
- Which squad has the best configuration
- Key players
- Teams playing style
- Collective performance under pressure.
- Players that can be negatively affected by the weather conditions
- Home field advantage
- Jet-lagged athlete’s past performances.
- Points per game
- Yards per game
- Third down efficiency
- Tackles and interceptions.
The Poisson Distribution
Sportingpedia allows one to “calculate how likely an event is to occur ‘n’ times within a set time” based on solid background information. For example: how many touchdowns will a quarterback score in a game?
- First-half scoring trends
- Sharp line moves
- Coaching trends
- Home underdog trends
- Weekly trends
- Bounce back trends.
In postseason games, sports betting predictions should always consider the team confrontations. Professional gamblers pick teams with solid defenses in this case and long-term predictions. This, plus a star quarterback, consistent offensive tackles, and efficient running backs, is usually the formula for building a Super Bowl-contending team.
Brazil Sports Betting Controversy
According to Marca (Sep 2022), “during a (soccer) game of the second division of Amazonas State Championship, midfielder Julio Campos from Atletico Amazonense scored against his own goal at the 89th minute when his side was already losing 1-3 to Sul America”. As a result, the media have echoed growing suspicions of match-fixing, and the federal authorities of the state of Amazonas have even launched a police investigation that includes other members of the losing team.
This is not an isolated case in the South American nation. In 2005 the Escândalo do Apito (The Whistle Scandal) occurred, which involved businessman Nagib Fayad and referees Edílson Pereira de Carvalho and Paulo José Danelon. Following the investigations, the Brazilian Supreme Court annulled the results of 11 matches of the Brazilian National Championship, 4 of the Brazilian Second Division, and 2 of the Paulista Championship.