When venturing into gambling, the bettor must assume an enormous truth: he will not win them all. It is not in vain: “He who does not risk does not win, but he who bets can lose”. This is an unmistakable part of the odds world, and numbers don’t lie. You can be 99% sure that you will win a bet —and specialists’ calculations can prove it— but that remaining 1% exists, and can play against us without us being able to do anything about it. With betting arbitrage, win little but win every time, learn more about it in this link.
Under these premises, the well-known Murphy’s law comes to rumble and makes us more aware of the fallibility that exists in the world of chance: “Anything that can go wrong will go wrong”.
However —and without wishing to undermine the real and palpable probability of losing when betting—, some have overcome expectations and come out victorious from the famous proverb. To do so, they have studied the system, found its flaws, taken advantage of it, taken risks, and have not lost.
Here is a success story of those who, using their ingenuity, have resisted “losing by gambling”:
Who Does Not Risk Does Not Win, but He Who Bets Can Lose? Not Always
According to etymonline.com, bet means “the mutual pledging of things of value to be won or lost based on some future event”, (1590). So, in its base concept, the word “bet” indicates the possible loss for those who carry it into action —the bettors, in this case—. Of course, the positive counterpart “win” should not be left out.
Despite what dictionaries say and what logic indicates, some people who do not like losing started to investigate until they found a method that would allow them to win every time.
After so much trying and trying, they succeeded. That is how the method they called “arbitrage betting” was born, and its premise is: “Win little but win always”. Now, what is arbitrage betting about? is this strategy cheating? What are the risks? We will answer these questions to leave no doubt about it, and allow regular bettors to increase their chances of winning a little. Arbitrage betting could be the best choice? read all about it in this link.
Arbitrage Betting: Think Right, Win Every Time
This strategy arises from the continuous analysis of the websites’ numbers when we want to bet on a particular game: the odds. And yes: it is the amount by which our money should be multiplied if we win.
But How Does Arbitrage Betting Work?
Well, odds are calculated by knowledgeable odds experts working for bookies. The deductions are based on the match statistics of the teams or contenders, that will face each other, and the circumstances under which the games will take place.
There are usually three resulting numbers, which are assigned as follows:
- A number to the team or player most likely to win.
- A number to the possible tie between the two contenders.
- A number for the team or player with the slightest chance of winning.
When one does not know much about the subject, it is usually thought that the highest number is the winner, which is a mistake. Simple, this number (the odd) must be multiplied by the player’s bet to calculate the winnings. Therefore, if the highest number is for the possible winning team, this could mean bankruptcy for the bookie. It would not make sense.
Now, the odds offered by a bookmarker are balanced (or should be) so that the house obtains a minimum profit by adding the results given by both (regardless of the winner). A formula that allows us to show the bookie’s profit is the following:
L= 1 / odd 1 + 1 / odd 2
Subtract 1 from the result and multiply by 100 to get the house’s winning percentage.
Bet365 odds for a match between Rangers & Lightning: 1.83 (Rangers) vs. 2.00 (Lightning)
L= 1 / 1.83 + 1 / 2.00= 0.546 + 0.500= 1.046
House profit percentage= 1.046 – 1= 0.046 x 100= 4.6%
Sometimes the house gets it wrong: arbitrage betting applies
This happens very often, even though it may seem unbelievable. It occurs mainly in games where the teams’ statistics are very unbalanced, and a contender’s win is 99% sure, or when someone who bets a large amount of money appears. The error lies mainly in that the value of “L”, instead of being higher than 1, is lower, and the resulting percentage benefits the bettor who understands this and not the house. Arbitrage betting has its risks, click here to read all about it.
An example could occur next Wednesday, October 12, when the Carolina Hurricanes face off against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Bet365 presented these odds (which may change in the next few days): 1.85 (Hurricanes) vs. 4.44 (Blue Jackets).
If we calculate “L,” we will find that value is less than 1:
L= 1 / 1.85 + 1 / 4.44= 0.540 + 0.225= 0.765
House profit percentage= (0.765-1) x 100= -23.5%
As can be seen, the percentage is lower. This oversight allows smart bettors to apply arbitrage betting and, regardless of which team wins, earn 23.5% of what they wager (approximately).
How Arbitrage Betting Is Applied
To use arbitrage betting, we must apply a formula that will allow us to know exactly how much to bet on each team and thus obtain that 23.5% average profit. The formula is as follows:
Formula: 1000/ L x odd= $ to bet
- $ to bet for Hurricanes= 1000/ 0.765 x 1.83 (Hurricanes odd) = 1000/1.399=79
$ to bet for Hurricanes= $714.79
- $ to bet for Blue Jackets= 1000/ 0.765 x 4.44 = 1000/ 3.396 = 46
$ to bet for Blue Jackets= $294.46
We multiply the amounts by the respective fees to find out how much we will earn:
- Betting for Hurricanes= $714.79 x 1.83 = $1,308. 06
- Betting for Blue Jackets= 294.46 x 4.44 = $1,307.40
With the results obtained, we can say that no matter who wins, if we bet $714.79 on Hurricanes and $294.46 on Blue Jackets, we will always win between $308.06 and $307.40. Here the premise is fulfilled: “Win little but win always”. Although, of course, in this case, the winning percentage is much higher than usual (between 0.5% and 10), which is highly unusual. It is worth mentioning that odds are constantly changing, so the bookie may take action in due time. It is just a matter of waiting.
Some Final Thoughts
- While those who hold the premise “He who does not risk does not win, but he who bets can lose” is quite right, as noted throughout the article, can avoid this now.
- Arbitrage betting is a strategy, a method, a resource that came to make bookies pay more attention to their calculations and for those who are warned to make a profit.
- Is it illegal in Canada to apply arbitrage betting? Not at all. No law forbids it. In such a case, each bookie is responsible for the odds it offers to its customers.
- If a bookie notices that someone is applying arbitrage betting at any time, he can ban him. It’s the duty of each bettor to assume this.
- You should not think that it is easy to get daily arbitrage odds of 23.4%, but they are there, they are there. Now, experts in the field do not do arbitrage manually. They know it would not be economically feasible, so they use specialized programs (BetWasp, for example).
- It cannot be overlooked that (even if the arbitrage is well applied) there are factors that can prevent expected results from happening. There can be draws, unexpected changes in the odds, suspensions of matches, and many other things.